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Montana ascends to No. 1

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The move was only one spot, but it was a big one for the University of Montana football team as the Grizzlies advanced to No. 1 in The Sportsbook Betting Lines/Fathead.com FCS Top 25 on Monday.

Montana was selected second in the preseason poll, but moved to No. 1 following its 73-2, season-opening rout of Western State and preseason No. 1 Villanova's 31-24 loss to FBS opponent Temple.

Villanova, the defending FCS national champion, didn't fall far as it was voted second in this week's poll by a panel of sports information and media relations directors, broadcasters, writers and other dignitaries. Montana had 57 of the 126 first-place votes and 3,052 points, while Villanova collected 46 first-place votes and 2,886 points.

Montana opened its season by tying an NCAA record with four interception returns for touchdowns against Western State. The Big Sky Conference power has finished as the national runner-up in each of the past two seasons, including a 23-21 loss to Villanova last December, and has a new head coach in Robin Pflugrad.

Appalachian State remained at No. 3, and Southern Illinois moved up one spot to No. 4. The biggest mover in the Top 25 was Jacksonville State, which rose 12 spots to No. 5 following its 49-48, double-overtime win at Ole Miss. Coach Jack Crowe's Gamecocks received nine first-place votes for their victory over an FBS program.

The rest of the Top 10 was New Hampshire at No. 6, followed by Richmond, Elon, South Dakota State and Stephen F. Austin.

In an opening week in which many FCS programs took on FBS programs, William & Mary was the only team in the Preseason Top 25 to fall to a fellow FCS program, a 27-23 loss to CAA Football rival Massachusetts. William & Mary, a national semifinalist last year, fell seven spots to No. 11. Massachusetts broke into the poll at No. 18.

James Madison was No. 12, followed by McNeese State, Northern Iowa, South Carolina State, Delaware, Eastern Washington, Massachusetts, Liberty and Weber State.

North Dakota State joined UMass as the other new entry into the Top 25, grabbing No. 21 after its 6-3 win at University of Kansas. The Bison were followed in the Top 25 by Prairie View A&M at No. 22, then Eastern Illinois, Montana State and Colgate.

The two teams that fell out of the Top 25 received the next-highest vote totals - Holy Cross, which won its opener, and Penn, which was idle.

The Top 25 will be released every Monday afternoon during the regular season, apart from the final weekend when it will be released on Sunday, Nov. 21, due to its use as an official tool by the NCAA Division I Football Committee in selecting the 20-team playoff field.

The Sportsbook Betting Lines and Fathead.com will release a final Top 25 following the FCS championship game, which will be held Jan. 7 at Pizza Hut Park in Frisco, Texas.

The night before the FCS championship game, The Sportsbook Betting Lines will present the Walter Payton (outstanding FCS player) Buck Buchanan (outstanding FCS defensive player) and Eddie Robinson (outstanding FCS coach) awards, which are sponsored by Fathead.


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Rangers promote INF German, designate Cora >>
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Kuznetsova exits the Open >>
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Washington fails to clinch playoff spot >>
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Saints ink LB Clark >>
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Dolphins sign veteran LB Carpenter >>
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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